So long mom, I'm off to drop the bomb....

Tom Lehrer - A man who was way ahead of his time in many ways. I only wish he would (and could) write and perform some new tunes for today's absurd reality. But I can't stop thinking of his song written in advance for World War 3: "So long mom (A song for World War 3)."

North Korea is taking advantage of the weakness it sees in the West to become even more belligerent. Trump is the critical weak point in the West's resolve to keep the peace, a peace which allows South Korea to prosper. And I can only see war in the future, with the likely possibility that nuclear weapons will be used as they may be the only tools which will stop North Korea from becoming a threat to the entire Western world.

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The problem dates back to the 1950's, when China decided to fight with North Korea against America and its allies to keep the American forces from coming too close to their border. China got stuck with protecting the Kim family's dysfunctional regime. We were at the beginning of the Cold War with Communist states, and the fighting in Korea was an anomaly. The Kims saw that they could become miniature emperors as long as they tied their wagons to Communist horses.

After almost 70 years since the uneasy peace was declared, the Kim family is still in power. They have used an elegant form of ransom to extract money from the West - holding Seoul as an effective hostage. Since South Korea has become a wealthy nation, the West would lose even more wealth if war were to break out again. So it decided to pay the ransom and kick the can down the road to future leaders to deal with. This was a big mistake.

The Kims made a big mistake too. They decided on building both ICMS and nuclear weapons, with the goal of being able to hold any nation on the planet hostage to their aims. The USA can not afford to lose any of its major cities. (Insert cynical joke here, based on your politics.) So we will likely be forced to act, even though the West will lose South Korea's economy and wealth in the process.

Strangely, as much as I hate Trump the man, I'm glad that he will let the military make the decisions needed to fight North Korea when the time comes. The military knows he is not competent enough to make decisions required of a commander in chief. So they will act responsibly, but give him enough cover to look presidential.

But what happens after the war? Ay, there's the rub. In order to limit the damage, South Korea will need to be protected from reunification. Since the North Korean people have been brainwashed to worship the Kim family, it will be a great effort and risk to absorb this useless population into a South Korea that will be trying to rebuild a country after a major war. They will want (but never saying this) as many primates as possible exterminated between the DMZ and the Yalu river (the Chinese Border). This means that South Korea has an interest in America to test and use as many of its military toys as possible in that war. And our military will only be too glad to oblige.,

Am I being overly cynical and pessimistic? Maybe. But I haven't thought of any other possible solution that could occur with less bloodshed and suffering....

When did America stop being great?

When did America stop being great?

The false prophet always plays his siren's song to the same type of people - those who have lost many benefits of privilege, but don't see that they didn't deserve them in the first place. Trump appeals to those who want to return America to the 1950's, where "White America" ruled the world. Of course, they gloss over evils such as "Jim Crow" and enforced conformity to get there.

It is right to fear what will happen in this country. We're already seeing violence committed by Trump supporters who think they have the right to force others to submit to their will. (We never saw this with the Bushes, Clinton or Obama.) We've opened the social equivalent of an infected pus ball under the skin, and have only started to see the ugly mess come out. There is a lot of repressed hatred coming out from people who could not properly articulate or manage their problems. And it will go somewhere, causing a lot of damage.

We can't expect ignorant people to educate themselves. They often think they have more knowledge than they have, making it impossible for them to see how ignorant they really are. (See: Dunning-Kruger effect.) Think of the person who says: "God said it, I believe it, and That's it!" First, how can he prove that God said something? Next, how can this person know that his preacher or rabbi is telling him the right way to understand the holy book? And then, why is he absolutely sure that his beliefs are correct? Has he tested them? (Even Christ had to undergo tests of faith in the Bible.) These are among the people who have supported Trump, and still follow this extremely flawed leader only out of tribal loyalty.  And now, they have gotten what they want - a messianic leader even more flawed than they are.

Sadly, the worst will likely happen in this country over the next few years. We've already seen the North Carolina legislature go back on a deal involving their law authorizing discrimination against the GLBT community. We've seen that same legislature strip away power from the governor, to keep it in the former executive's party's hands. We've seen that same legislature make it impossible for the opposing political party to have an effective check and balance in the bureau of elections - making sure that the opposition party only has power in non-election years. This is the kind of behavior that signals the end of a republic, and the Trump supporters have "drunk the Kool-Aid."

The "Thousand Year Reich" only lasted 12 years. Who will lead the world when America falls? China? We are unprepared for the loss of what we cherish most, and many of us don't even see what is happening yet. I never experienced fear like this before, as I didn't understand what could be lost. Now, I see evil for what it is, and we've gotten way too close to the fires of Hell not to get burnt. I hope we will reverse this course towards the destruction of our country, but I doubt it.

I am lucky to have experienced America close to its greatest period in history. I am lucky to have known an America that looked outward to the world. I am lucky to have grown up in an America that welcomed diversity. Yes, it was a very flawed America, but one we could be proud of. My sincerest hope is that we will weather this coming storm, and that our children's generation will restore the greatness America lost during this coming era of darkness.

Thoughts about dismantling the Military-Industrial Complex

When I first planned to write this week's entry, my original topic choice was Saudi Arabia's decision to cut diplomatic ties with Iran following riots sparked by the Saudi execution of a Shiite cleric. (This may be covered in a future entry.)  While reading the Sunday newspaper, a better topic came to mind: the economics of dismantling part of the US Military-Industrial complex.

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In a recent NY Times opinion page article, the author discusses how the Death Star may have been a project that was too big to fail, and how the rebellion may not have been well received because of the economic chaos that ensued after its destruction.  Given how much of our economy depends on the military to keep it afloat, do we suffer from the same problem that the fictional galactic empire may have suffered with?

Let's say that we use a reported figure of $718,000,000,000 for current US Military spending and attempt to cut that in half, and spend $359,000,000,000 on domestic projects such as rebuilding our roads, providing health care, educating people and shoring up Social Security.  What would happen if the budget were cut quickly, without a proper transition?

First, what would happen to the displaced top secret technology workers?  How would they find employment?  What fields would they work in?  This is not a spurious question.  The US had to address this concern at the end of the Cold War. Yet, our "defense" spending is higher than ever. The USSR had even greater problems, as it lost the Cold War and had no plan to reintegrate the displaced workers into a civilian economy.  In fact, the "West" was more than willing to pay displaced Soviet scientists NOT to sell their services to a rogue country.  Can you imagine what costs would exist for transitioning some of these workers to the civilian economy?

Next, America operates in a much more transparent economic environment than most countries. How would we use the newly freed funds? (Approximately $1,200 per US Citizen.)  In theory, that could pay much of the cost for giving every citizen subsidized health insurance.  But that money would be just as needed for education, infrastructure renewal, etc....  How would the funds be divided?  And if an equitable division could be arranged, then where would we get the new, trained, skilled workers? It might make sense to do a gradual transition, if only to train the workers we need in the fields we plan to staff with new workers.

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We must preserve our old skill sets.  Although we do not need to build new B-52 bombers, they must be maintained.  (Note: Planned replacements for these old workhorses have been built, but still do not have the ruggedness of this "ancient" plane.  We may actually need to build replacements, albeit fitted with modern technology at some point in the future.)  But, how do we preserve the skills to make nuclear weapons?  What about germ and chemical warfare? We can't afford to be blind sided by some rogue state that decides to use these weapons - we must know how to deploy them and to defend ourselves against them.  Moving forward is a bitch.  But forgetting the lessons of our past is even worse.  It saddened me when many Americans looked at China's putting a man in space as old news - a "been there, done that" attitude.  They are doing it with NEW technology.  We have forgotten how to do it with OLD technology. And the workers who built that technology for us are dying off without proper replacements....

So we need to keep part of the Military-Industrial complex in place, no matter what peace advocates want. The only to have peace (and I cite Sun Tsu) is to be prepared for war well enough so that others will avoid battle with you.  How might this peace be obtained? 

First, we need to get the Military-Industrial complex into making civilian goods again.  Instead of making limited use "Mil-Spec" electronics, they should develop trusted civilian sources for ruggedized technology - and use that for new military uses.  Instead of using 30 year old chip design, make sure that backward compatible design (with both hardware and software) be incorporated into all Military electronics, so that upgrades can be cost effective. However, this is only one area of improvement.  We must resist the idea of over designing products.  Yes, we want to keep our troops safe. But are $350,000,000 fighter jets the answer, when cheaper solutions can be found?  Why should fighter jets be all-purpose? There is no good reason that the Air Force and Navy must have compatible jets - they just need to have as many interchangeable "off the shelf" parts as humanly possible, so that customization for each service can be done as cheaply as possible.

Next, we must provide for the threats of the 21st century.  And many of them will be electronic.  We need to protect our businesses from foreign hacking, and we do a piss poor job of that.  Luckily, our businesses do a better job (from what I can tell) protecting themselves than our government does. Heck, when North Korea has the implicit protection/cooperation of China to hack our systems, then we have problems.  (See: Bureau 121 - Shenyang China.) What is our government doing to protect us?  Not that much - it is focused on keeping the old military technology alive.  If we are to make this transition, we also need to provide more profitable opportunities for businesses in the Military-Industrial complex, and this is an area that will help American civilians and the profits of the Military-Industrial complex.

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Hopefully, whoever we elect on Election Day 2016 will be wise enough to see this opportunity to make America strong again.  We no longer need to be "Great".  But we do need to take care of our own needs as a society, and not just the needs of one sector of that society....

It's not just what you know, but how and when you use that knowledge.

Not many people have seen an Enigma machine close up - but I have. It's an amazing piece of engineering, but not as amazing as the fact that we cracked the code AND knew enough not to use all the knowledge we had, lest we clue the enemy in to the fact that their codes were broken.

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During WW2, one of the biggest clandestine goals of British intelligence was to break the German Enigma codes. Every day, the Germans would change the rotors and give the Enigmas new settings to code and decode messages. The Allied forces could not break these codes until Alan Turing figured out the weaknesses of what the Germans were doing. 

After the codes were broken, what next? One had a good idea of what the enemy knew, but could they prevent disasters? Often, NO! Unless there was a plausible way to explain why a troop movement was changed, why a convoy was rerouted, why some action was not taken, the Allies had to accept the known attack to come.

Today, we are in a similar war - but against many powers. Ars Technica describes what one division of the NSA is likely to have done in infecting systems around the world, so that America has a technical edge which might be used militarily.  

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In the past, America has tapped Soviet (now Russian) cables connecting the mainland to Vladivostok to keep tabs on the fleet stationed there. But the Soviets were able to plant a bug in the American Embassy in Moscow - inside the Great Seal given to us as a gift. And the Chinese are known to have their electronic spies as well. All the major nations are playing this game, and they have likely evolved a form of "rules of engagement" for use when dealing with each other. But this doesn't apply to nations that aren't top tier powers. Nor does this apply to non-national powers, such as Palestine (not yet a nation) or ISIS.

As civilians, none of us (for all practical purposes) have any clue to what is going on behind the scenes. We do not know for sure how successful the STUXNET virus was in attacking Iran's Uranium enrichment program, but it likely set Iran back by a year or two. Even more interesting is North Korea's military programs - could they have been compromised by malware hidden in the hard drives they bought from outside the country? (I'd bet that China may playing a role here, as they have gotten weary of keeping this dysfunctional regime afloat.)

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Much of the time, information like this never makes it to the history books. Alan Turing's accomplishments were kept Top Secret by the British for a couple of generations. Once classified as Top Secret, few governments ever bother to reclassify information which no longer needs to be kept secret. Yet, some secrets are kept by hiding them in plain sight. Leon Theremin was reportedly kidnapped from the United States in the 1930's (there is information that says he left for tax reasons), and after a stint in the gulag, then working for the KGB, ended up at the Moscow Conservatory of music (building Theremins and other musical instruments) before becoming a professor of Physics at Moscow State University.

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There are people who want our president to go to war against ISIS, putting boots on the ground.  Are we ready to have our children come back from the war in body bags (or worse)? I doubt it. Years ago, President Kennedy contacted the pilots flying spy planes over Cuba and gave them orders (with explanations) to NOT report any hostile fire from the ground while flying their missions. Many planes came back perforated - and the pilots claimed they hit birds and other things. This gave the president the room he needed to talk peace. But it was not only an American who prevented the Third World War - there was a Soviet Officer, Vasili Arkhipov, who kept his submarine from launching nuclear missiles while the submarine he was on was being attacked by American depth charges. Hard Liners in both countries wanted war - thankfully, that war never happened. Are we ready for yet another "Forever War", because we're seeing extreme inhumanity from an enemy? Or, are there other things we can do (or are being done) that can limit the scope of the war?

Right now, we do not have all the facts, and we are being manipulated by the media. We have to watch out how the media is being manipulated - when the Jordanian pilot was burned to death, none of America's Left and Centrist media provided links to see this murder. Only the Right wing media provided links to view the murder, as it is trying to stir up the will for Americans to endure yet another war. In fact, politicians are already saying we should resort to nukes, and kill ruthlessly. Wouldn't it make more sense to get more information before another rush to war?

Even Eric Cartman couldn't cause this much trouble

I'm disgusted!  An all but acknowledgement of state sponsored terrorism, and no way to deal with the criminals behind it. (And if there is a plan, our government is not talking about it.)

We have just seen our 1st amendment trumped by a terrorist threat to bomb movie theaters that show "The Interview" - a film about two people being recruited to assassinate the leader of North Korea. Sony's computers have been hacked, theater chains refuse to show the picture, and the public denied the right to see a movie previously scheduled to open on Christmas day. Even worse, when theaters decided to show "Team America, World Police" instead, Sony shot down their chances of showing this film as well.

I never thought we'd see our freedoms at risk this way - Americans are running scared because of a threat from some unnamed hackers. North Korea is a basket case of a country, and one that will eventually collapse if both China and the West stop bailing it out. Sadly, there are problems with this. The South Koreans can't afford to rescue the North, the Chinese don't want a reunification that puts a strong American ally on its borders, Russia has a veto in every possible situation, and the Americans have every reason to wait things out. So North Korea continues to exist, blackmailing the major players in the region for what the dictatorship needs to survive.

But what would happen if we looked at this situation as an opportunity?

There is an old saying: "They shoot horses, don't they?" And maybe this is how the Americans, Chinese and Russians should think about North Korea.  What would happen if all possible opposition were neutralized in the North, and the three major powers were to create a consortium for the extraction of rare earth minerals - raping the land (something already being done) for their profit, instead of that of the Kim regime?

Yes, I am talking about the destruction of a nation for profit. But I doubt that anything could save the North Korean people - at least not at the prices that any of the stake holders are willing to pay. But please remember that I pose this "modest proposal" only as a thought experiment, and one meant to change how people are thinking of the problem posed by North Korea.  There are millions of lives at stake. And eventually, someone will have to address their needs when North Korea self destructs....

A long needed thaw - something I never thought I'd see....

This is what most Caribbean nations dependent on tourism feared - the United States and Cuba gradually warming up to each other. There are so many things which should be binding the two nations together, but for bad politics (on both sides) and an assassinated American President that got in the way of common sense.

One person told me that addiction is similar to having to choose between opening two doors. The first door will allow you to exit the room. The second door will have you beaten up by a gorilla. The addicted person keeps repeatedly choosing the second door, while the non-addict will quickly choose the first door and leave the room. When the addict is asked why he keeps choosing the same door, the addict will respond with something to the effect - well, it can eventually change, can't it?

Our policy towards Cuba has been very much like that of the person who keeps opening up the wrong door - the Castro regime has not been ousted, and it has become even more entrenched over the years. Many people want to punish Cuba for its actions of 53 years ago, but most people alive today weren't alive when the embargo was put in place. What good does punishing a country do when the people being punished are not responsible for the problem. This punishment seems to be a misguided approach to keeping the first generation of Cuban exiles happy and voting according to their current patterns.

Most people don't know that it is perfectly legal for Americans to visit North Korea, a country more troublesome to American interests, and spend money there. Yet, in a country that has not been shown to sponsor terrorism (save, in the figments of collective Washington, DC political imagination), it is effectively illegal for Americans to be there. Something is very wrong - and it likely has to do with American political paralysis.

There are issues that will need to be negotiated before a full thaw has occurred. And they have nothing to do with promoting democracy in Cuba. Instead, they will have to do with trademarks and the exports of certain goods. For example, Bacardi Rum got its start in Cuba. The family took the brand along with them when they left Cuba, and established it in Puerto Rico. Do you think they can afford to have the Cubans sell rum under the Bacardi name after the embargo is lifted? Another example is Cohiba cigars. The brand available in the USA is made in the Dominican Republic, while the brand available in most of the world is made in Cuba. How will this get resolved?

If anyone brings up the idea that Cuba stole property from its rightful owners, it should be noted that Russia and China have done the same thing, and that the United States has relationships with these countries. In fact, one might find the history of Smirnoff Vodka interesting, as the trademark left Russia - and when Russians resurrected it in their own right, a "peaceful" settlement was reached. This makes me comfortable with the idea that both the United States and Cuba will resolve issues like this to their mutual satisfaction.

Obama, like him or hate him, is a person who plays the long game. The game with Cuba will play out long after Obama is out of the game. It will take time to negotiate and resolve the issues that have arisen over the 53+ years that we have had an embargo. And the negotiations have only just begun....