What we're seeing today around the world is reminiscent of what happened in 1918 with the "Spanish Flu". Look at the world today then read about America in1918, and you'll see some eerie similarities. Today, the ease of air transit allowed people from one part of the world to infect nations all over the globe. In 1918, America had people from one area of the country infecting people from other areas of the country, facilitated by our interstate rail network.
"Social Distancing" is a polite term for keeping people away from each other. We are social animals, and generally hate to be away from others of our own kind. For example, all of my meetup groups cancelled gatherings voluntarily. But I know of at least one that had three scheduled meetings in the second half of March. And its organizer said the following in a group email:
Greetings, Just wanted to respond to members' comments and questions:
This is a group of intelligent, educated, informed and engaged adults. Therefore I am leaving it to each of you to decide how to respond to the current 'crisis'.
If any of our restaurants cancel, I will let you know right away. Until that happens I am not cancelling any dinners or other activities - it is up to you to decide whether or not to come. If you choose to cancel - no problem and no need to explain why - we understand!! - just change your RSVP.
Stay safe and well and I look forward to seeing you again whenever you think it is safe to join us.
Cheers and best wishes,
Do you think this was responsible, based on what we already knew on March 13, 2020? Each and every one of my other meetup groups had already cancelled their meetings for the rest of March, and some cancelled meetings through the first half of April. This woman put social cohesion above the health of the people in her group.
Sadly, the above Meetup organizer's feeling about the virus was not uncommon.
- Reuters - Florida Retirement Hub worried more about stock market than virus
- Crooks and Liars - See no evil. People in The Villages are a test case of whether ignorance is bliss
- Washington Post - Older Americans are concerned about the Coronavirus, unless they are Republican
The common factor - most of the people who believed that the virus story is a hoax are Republicans who watch Fox "News". They echoed Trump's early statements that the Coronavirus was a hoax, and was no worse than the common cold. It took a while, but New York State is now mandating that all but 10% of an employer's personnel either work at home, or are furloughed for the duration needed to stop the spread of the virus.
As I said earlier, protecting people from this virus means behaving in a manner we are uncomfortable behaving - as if we were hermits. Yet, some communities, such as the ultra orthodox Jewish community in Brooklyn continue to violate public safety norms. These will be the same people who complain most when many people from their community get sick then die. It's hard to have compassion for these people, as they put their tradition above their communal safety.
During an age of social distancing, the function of governments must still be performed. Garbage must still be picked up, Fires must still be fought, and the normal paperwork of government must still be processed. Not all functions will be performed well. For example, we can't release every person from our prisons, nor can we staff the prisons at normal levels during this outbreak. This means that more people will be at risk inside our prisons than before.
There are two functions of the federal government that can not be avoided or postponed this year - the presidential election and the decennial census. We're already seeing problems in the first, as no one ever dreamed that we'd have a pandemic in an election year. Nor did anyone dream that we'd have so much politically at stake in this election. In regard to the census, how many people will bother to open their doors to respond to a census taker - even when most people will be able to file electronically? A screw up in the census can affect all 50 states for the next 10 years. So it's very important that we get it right - in spite of the virus.
Without much help from the federal government, the states have taken it on themselves to act. But uncoordinated action is likely to put resources where the highest bidders are, and not where they are most needed. Can you imagine if California and New York were to buy up all the available masks, respirators, and other medical supplies before Texas felt there was a need to do so? Even worse? What if a poor state like West Virginia couldn't get needed supplies because they couldn't afford them?
Luckily for me, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are working together to slow down and stop the virus' spread in the tri-state region. Andrew Cuomo looks much more like a national leader than our own president, as he is taking actions that the public can understand AND he is being clear about what is happening that can influence. Unfortunately, there is only so much any leader at his level can do, as his powers are limited by custom, law, and the norms of society.
Unfortunately, there is an economic cost to fighting this virus. Many of us will be out of work for a short time. Others will lose their jobs permanently. Businesses with healthy cash reserves will survive, while others that do not have adequate reserves will fail. Even Steven Mnuchin, Trump's financial guru, says that we could have a 20% unemployment rate by year end. This is coming way too close to the 25% unemployment rate of the Great Depression. It could take decades to dig ourselves out from under this economic hole. We need tools to keep things from getting as bad as the great depression - and we need to use them soon.
During his presidential campaign, Andrew Yang proposed the idea of a basic minimum income. Recently, Mitt Romney suggested that we give out $1000 to every American to help keep the economy afloat. Even though Romney thought of this as a one time action, universal basic income is now starting to get some traction on Capitol Hill - if only because politicians know in their guts that we need to spend some big money now to avoid radical political change.
Yet, the cost to sociaty can not only be measured in terms of money. People need to feel they make a real contribution to society. Getting paid real money for real work is part of the solution. And we have tools from our past we can use. During the Great Depression, FDR put as many people as possible building (and enhancing) our nation's physical infrastructure. We built dams, roads, post offices, and other public places - many of them still in use today. Why not make similar investments in this country, instead of wasting money on our military-industrial complex?
Sadly, everything always seems to come back to politics - something my brother hates talking about with a passion. With this virus, we had few tools to deal with many of the problems we now face. For example, our president cut the CDC's pandemic response team in 2018, climing he could hire people quickly when needed. Has this happened yet? NO! These people have moved onto better paying jobs, and will not make a sacrifice to be on Trump's team. The financial stimulus tools we once had were squandered to give the wealthy a tax cut in 2017, goosing the economy's health for an extra 2 years. Our president judged the health of America solely by the health of the stock market, and not the health of its people. If he had cared about the health of its people, he would not have tried to gut the ACA (Obamacare) before having a good replacement ready to go. And recently, the president kept a cruise ship from docking, as it would increase the number of Americans in the 50 states afflicted by the virus.
Years ago, Harry Truman said, "The Buck Stops Here!" He took responsibility for dealing with things which were not his fault. Trump says nothing is his fault, and shifts blame elsewhere. He is ignorant of science, and had no clue about how viruses spead. All his actions were reactionary, and in his self interest - including NOT using the WHO virus test kit, and developing one of our own. This wasted precious time we'll never get back in stemming this virus. When asked about firing the CDC pandemic staff and not using the WHO virus test kit, he shows no responsibility. Someone else is always to blame. This is not leadership.
We could and should have been better prepared for a pandemic. Even now, they are wondering what to do about Congress. Why not brush off the old plans for a nuclear war, and move the three branches of government to an underground shelter after 30 days of self quarrantine? There are 9 Supreme Court justices, 100 Senators, 435 Congressmen, a President and a Vice President. Can't they figure out ways to deal with their duties in a confined, safe place until the virus is contained? What sould we do about elections? This is something we should have planned for as well. We did much of the thinking when we planned for a nuclear war against the USSR. Now it's time to complete the thought process and update our preparedness plans.
To me, the biggest preparedness problem we should have solved was the presidential and congressional elections. After that, comes the census, as we have both taken more than one year to complete a census AND have delayed reapportionment for several years. In regard to this year's election, this is something we'll need to deal with quickly, as many current polling places are not equipped to handle large numbers of people and keep them the needed 6 feet apart in this age of the virus. It's bad enough that we have to deal with foreign meddling in this year's election. But having to worry about spreading a virus is way too much for many people to contemplate. Hopefully, we'll be better prepared next time.
