How long can we live with an unsustainable way of making war?

It's been a while since I've posted in this journal, but I finally have something important to say.

Our special military operation against (read: war) Iran has been going on for several months now, and what do we have gotten for it?  As I write this, we got 18 service members coming home in body bags, a depleted munitions stock, an aircraft carrier coming to port due to an under-supplied, emotionally exhausted crew, and hundreds of billions of dollars deeper in dept.  We did not get regime change in Iran.  We did not eliminate the potential nuclear threat Iran poses.  And we did not vanquish our "enemy".  Instead, we have shown that the US is a paper tiger, and that Iran has the power to shut off 20% of the world's oil supply.

Our president is known for taking action based on the voice of the last person who spoke to him.  In this case, he was suckered into starting a war by the leader of Israel, a fellow crook in his own right.  Previous presidents knew that a war with Iran could not be won, at least, not with the effort Americans were willing to put into the war.  But, by starting this war, we have already lost it.   But, if you ask our president, he'll say we're winning the war, and that the Strait of Hormuz is open for shipping.  Yet, he'll act like a little child when someone asks him a question which holds him to account for his mistakes.  His ego is so fragile, that by not admitting any of his failings, he is unable to learn from his mistakes.  As a result, he keeps doubling down on his lies, and no one trusts him anymore.  Yet, people are afraid of him due to his ability to rally members of his cult to attack his enemies.

America is now $40,000,000,000 in debt.  For the first time in history, we are now paying more in debt service than we pay for defense.  This can not last for long.  This president would cut social spending in order to preserve our war machine.  But what good would that do?  We can't even defeat an enemy like Iran.  Our military is not nimble.  We still act as if we need to fight the wars of the 20th century, instead of those we need to fight now.  Instead of retreating into 1940's military technology, as our president would do with our aircraft carriers, we should be at the forefront of 2020's military technology, as Ukraine has exhibited with its use of drone technology.  I ask the question: why haven't we planned for the use of drones in warfare, given Ukraine's success of holding its own against Russia.

Unmanned vehicles (air, land, and sea) are the future of warfare, as they can enable militaries to fight wars while keeping their service members well behind the scenes in relative safety.  For those near the front lines of battle, they can provide the tools for defense that older, more expensive military tools and weapons can not provide.  Unmanned vehicles are cheaper and more effective than older military technology.  They have allowed Ukraine, a nation without a navy, to defeat the Russian navy and make it an almost useless asset.  Ukraine has developed a new way to fight wars, and all our president did was to say that Ukraine didn't hold any cards.  And Ukraine has proven that it has a stronger hand than our president would admit by being able to attack Moscow with its drones.  If anything, our war with Iran has shown that we hold a weaker hand than our current regime wants to admit.

Given the cost of proven drone technology vs. the cost of our overpriced military technology, I see a potential to kill several birds with one stone.  First, we can no longer afford to enforce a "Pax Americana" as we did for the second half of the 20th century.  So, let's wind it down to areas we can defend, and have other nations form healthy regional alliances for defense.  Second, let's take she savings from winding down the "Pax Americana" and do three things with it: (a) develop drone technology with Ukraine and build up stockpiles which both countries can use, (b) plug up holes in our social safety net (especially in healthcare, and (c) pay down our national debt.

Iran has tactics which it is using that we are not matching.  If propaganda is meant to modify public opinion, it is a cheap weapon in this internet age.  While our president is posting AI Slop on his social media accounts, the Iranians are posting entertaining "Lego Stories" on their feeds.  What's worse, as they are much more factual than the garbage our president is presenting as "Truth".  Truth Social is anything but truth.  Yet, Iran's videos cost almost nothing, spread further than our president's Truth Social posts, and contain more truth.  Who do you think should be believed?  Iran, a country who has said "Death to America" in the past, is no longer saying that (for now).  They are directing their anger (rightfully) towards our President and his regime.  What does this say for the legitimacy of the two contries' ruling elites?

The British empire fell because Britain couldn't afford to maintain it. As a result, it had to deal with decades of national decline. America is well on the same path to a similar national failure that could cripple us for generations.  And yet, our president's incompetency has given us an opportunity if we are wise enough to seize it.  Things are so FUBAR (F'd up beyond all recognition) that radical change may just be possible.  Licensing Ukrainian drone technology might help our military become more nimble and cost effective.  It may help America rebuild its industrial logistics, so that we can again build civilian products in the US, as we did with the aircraft and space industries.  We can learn from the past, and choose to take a different path than those who preceded us.

The big question is:  Will we learn the lessons of the past and make good choices.  I'm hoping that America will follow the lead of a wise woman (Mae West) who said: "Whenever given the choice between two evils, I'll choose the one I haven't chosen before."  It's time for something new, and even a bad choice of something new is better than the continued choices of something old we have been making as of late. 

A distraction and a risk

When the author of this blog was growing up, a 6 oz. bottle of Coke cost only 5 cents. 50 years later, the same 6 oz. bottle would sell for 50 cents, if that bottle were still available. (The 12 oz. can usually sells for $1.00 in many outlets, so I use that for my comparison.) Even if my prices are off a little, the price of most optional consumables has gone up by a factor of 10 since I was a child.

Inflation is the thief that robs us all without immediate pain. Governments tend to spend more money than they take in via taxes, and quietly run the printing press to repay creditors with inflated currency. America has done this several times in our history, most notably during the Great Depression, when we changed the price of an ounce of gold from $20 to $35, and then confiscated the gold in American citizens' hands. 

The second time America raped its currency was during the Vietnam war. Instead of taxing the public, and openly dealing with the costs of this unneeded war, we issued debt that would be paid off with cheaper currency. And our government got into the habit of printing money, inflating the currency, until we had short term interest rates approaching 18%. When credit card debt isn't expensive, the economy has serious problems. And we did have them in the late 1970's and early 1980's, where Jimmy Carter had to slam the brakes on the economy to prevent hyperinflation from kicking in.  (Of course, Ronald Reagan got the credit here, as actions of one president often show results in the next president's term.)

Today, we're seeing a great distraction taking place. Our president has decided that the public wants a stronger military (rah, rah, rah for our team - yeah, right!) and is willing to spend money that we don't have.  During his campaign, he posed a question which is very dangerous for the issuer of the world's settlement currency - why doesn't America renegotiate its debt, and settle for pennies on the dollar? Many people have forgotten that question, but I haven't. What will happen if he decides to pay back creditors with cheaper dollars?  

70 years after World War 2, the world now has several decent options for a settlement currency of choice, the dollar being only one of them. The other two possibilities of note are the Euro and the Chinese Yuan. Any nation or zone that issues the dominant settlement currency has a distinct advantage, as its businesses have an easier time dealing with currency risk. And that results in lower costs for the nation/zone, resulting in a higher standard of living for people within that nation/zone.

Can we afford another round of inflation?  No.  But based on historical trends, we will likely see one with disastrous effects. Hopefully, I am wrong, as there are a lot more people living on fixed incomes now than when I was a child, and they are much less able to afford the risks of inflation.

There is a real risk of something worse happening.

As I write this, I've just digested the news that Donald Trump has made a $25 million settlement for the Trump University swindle, without admitting any fault for the problem.  On the same night, his VP was at "Hamilton" and a cast member stuck up a challenging conversation with Pence.  To distract people from Trump's paying off on a settlement, Trump accused the cast member of harassing the VP elect.  Again, we're seeing business as usual from Trump - when you have to pay for your sins, distract others from the confession, and certainly don't admit any fault or responsibility.

No one ever expects Trump to ever expose his tax returns to public scrutiny. If they were public, they would expose the many intricate layers of international deals with people who are less than honorable. Couple this with not divesting Trump's holdings into a blind trust and disconnecting the family from the family business, we have great potentials for conflicts of interest which I have no trust that Trump will handle honorably.

Everyone I speak to in my bubble of friends is horrified about what this presidency means. To me, I expect to see a lot of scandals, with a president trying to scuttle freedoms enumerated in the 1st amendment and upheld by over 200 years of legal precedent. His election has unleashed conservatives who want to shred the social safety net.  The Speaker of the House is now floating proposals to scuttle Medicare, and replace it with a voucher program.  We have never had a decent marketplace solution to healthcare issues in this country, and the Speaker only will make things worse.  He wants to subsidize the wrong side of the Supply/Demand curves with his voucher based proposal, and this will only raise prices.  If he were to subsidize supply, he'd reduce prices - but politicians never have a clue on how to make markets work to solve problems and not make them worse.

I see a major attack on Gay Rights coming, and the GLBT communities have much to fear. It's amazing how many people are killed around the world because they do not fit the molds of traditionalist sexual identities and/or practices. With a VP such as Pence, Trump has signaled that he doesn't give a damn about social rights or safety to marginalized groups. He is a bully, and only respects bullies - and despises anyone who could be a victim. Hopefully, more gay people will join groups such as the "Pink Pistols", and signal that they will not allow themselves to be pushed around.

But it is not just the Gays who are at risk.  I go to a Muslim doctor for treatment.  He has always treated me with respect, and we have always had the chance to talk a little about social affairs on my visits.  He has been a valuable member of my community for generations. Why should he be called on to register with the government because of his religion - as posed by Trump before and after his election?  How does one choose who is good and bad from any religion?  Should Christians get a free pass?  We see religious terrorism from some people from our religious right, and no one demands that Christians register with the government.  And what about the Jews?  They should always remember the yellow stars sewed on to their clothes.  They must always remember the numbers tattooed on their arms during the Nazi years.  They must start standing up to say NO - this should never happen to any group, not even our professed opponents, ever again!

What about the rhetoric of rebuilding our military?  We're the only nation in the world that can fight a war in two theaters of operation at the same time.  We spend as much on our military as the next 5 nations in the world combined.  The biggest problem with our military is that it is too big!  Much of our spending takes place because we have grown addicted to the jobs that building unneeded equipment brings to communities across the nation.  It is an inefficient way of keeping people employed, as once bullets are shot and bombs are dropped, we have nothing to show for this spending.  No new bridges are built.  No roads are constructed. No houses are erected.  No children are educated.  No sick are healed. I could go on and on about the things we don't have because we have chosen to fight "forever wars" instead of preparing ourselves for a future of prosperity we could 
have earned.  

We do have problems.  For example, we have alienated people in both rural and urban areas. They are not well educated, and live where good jobs are not available to them.  In rural areas, the mills have closed down, and the people can't move to places where plentiful jobs are.  In urban areas, the high paying jobs require educations that people can't afford to get.  And when people fail to achieve to a reasonable potential, they often fall into despair and escape into drugs and alcohol.  No amount of moral and legal punishment can help these people.  Only opportunity can help them.  Sadly, structural unemployment is becoming a greater problem every day, and the elites have at best neglected the worse off in our society. And at worst, they have warehoused these people in a prison industrial complex geared to keep them out of sight and out of mind.

There is a tendency for those who are alienated to follow authoritarian leaders when they don't feel like they are getting their fair share from the system.  They look towards a messianic figure to deliver them from the injustices they perceive are being inflicted on them without delving deeper into their problems.  For example, many people voted for Trump because he promised to eliminate environmental regulations which made the coal mines unprofitable. Sadly, he can't make people use coal who don't want to buy it.  As such, the people are going to get screwed again, because the false messiah made promises which could not be kept. If these people saved their money when times were good, they could have left their one horse towns at the first sign of decline.  The unions could have negotiated phased shutdowns of plants, with safety nets in place to help people transition to skills currently in demand - and provided relocation assistance so these retrained workers could go to where the new jobs were.  Instead, the former workers blame the wrong "others" for their problems, and keep sowing the seeds for future disappointments.

The election of Trump was a signal by the masses that they wanted change.  They did not care much about the nature of the change - they wanted to riot using ballot boxes as weapons.  Trump can not and will not deliver the changes the people want. He has too many conflicts of interest for him to even govern honorably.  All he can and will do is push this country towards an authoritarian government - if we don't resist it.  Resistance can be peaceful - mobs of people can block movement of traffic in a city.  Mobs of people can protest at key locations and get the press needed to show that the government lacks critical public support.  But mostly, they can slow things to a halt until a new and more honest leader can come through the ranks, and truly push for healthy change.  Until then, I pray that the decent people in the GOP will reach across the aisle to the Democrats and use the legislative branch of government to check and balance the power of this Sociopath who will be in charge of the executive branch of government. 

The conservatives won this election.  Now they have a duty to govern responsibly. Only time will tell if they handle their responsibilities honorably in spite of having a dishonorable man in charge of the executive branch of government....