By now the election results are in. And given the third presidential debate, I am hoping that Trump did the right thing and conceded defeat.
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At the time I wrote this entry, Trump said that he would only consider following a long standing tradition and concede the election (assuming Hillary wins at the polls). This is a dangerous precedent. Part of the glory of this country is the peaceful transfer of power from one administration to another, including the times when the opposition party is voted into power. Trump is a clear and present danger, as long as he does not honor the will of the people, as this could incite malcontents into starting a "Beer Hall Putsch".
Hillary did the honorable thing and said that she would respect the results of the election. Of course, I expect this would be easy for her, because, by most measures, she is likely to win the election. As of the time of the debate, this was Hillary's election to lose, and I think that she avoided the big mistakes that would cause her to lose.
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Last week, a decade old recording of Trump talking about being a sexual predator made the news. And the fellow on the other end of the conversation (Billy Bush) was fired from the Today show. Several Republicans revoked their endorsements of Trump, as they realized that the GOP needs the votes of white women to win future elections. With this week's pronouncement regarding election results, these Republicans, and more, should be saying that they will respect the results of the election, and will not support Trump is he challenges the election.
Gore had good reason to challenge Bush in 2000. Voting machines did not accurately record the will of the voters. Yet, when the results were finalized, Gore conceded with grace. In his blog of the third presidential debate, Andrew Sullivan posted an image of the letter that George Bush wrote to Bill Clinton on 1/20/1993. It was an extremely gracious letter, saying that Bush truly wished Clinton the best fortune as president of our country. I doubt that Trump can be this gracious.
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I strongly hope that Hillary wins this election, as I am afraid of how nasty Trump treats people perceived to be his enemies. There is no place in being nasty and impolite when one is the most powerful person in the world. As Teddy Roosevelt once said, "Speak softly and carry a big stick." Trump does neither. In each of the debates, Hillary acted with class, and kept her cool. Trump, on the other hand, showed himself for the bully he is. He is not qualified to stand at the most important bully pulpit in the world. He is the clear and present danger to America, not Hillary. In nihilist rage, he would destroy the country if he doesn't get his way. Whereas Hillary will only keep a corrupt system in place, for lack of a better system to replace what we have now.
So I ask a question - can one man, in isolation, "Make America Great Again?" If Trump can, he doesn't need the cooperation of the American people to do so. And if not, it would be foolish to elect a person who believes he can accomplish miracles due to the "strength" of his personality. Hopefully, America has voted rationally.
By this point in the campaign, I'd expect that in a normal Presidential Race, we'd have more undecided voters. This year, we have people from both parties who are sick of the choices given to us by the two major parties, and want another choice. Given the above chart (issued on 10/16/2016), it looks like 9% of the public wants to vote "NO" to both Trump and Clinton, leaving 6% of the public in the "Undecided" category.
If we factor out the two minor parties, the chart looks like this:
This chart implies that 8% of the vote is up for grabs, making it highly likely that Hillary will win. Although anything can change up to election day, the above two charts do not look good for Trump.
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The big problem with elections is showing the public that they have not been rigged. It is much harder to falsify votes once cast. Instead, the two parties fight to keep people loyal to the opposition from getting to vote. But what happens when a vote is as close as it was in Florida's Bush v. Gore battle? One could legitimately say that the election was stolen by Bush and his friends. Yet, Gore had the grace to concede, knowing that he could have destroyed America's faith in this most important of citizen rights and duties.
In some states, the incidents of election fraud are not myths. Elections can and are being rigged by corrupt politicians who manipulate vote casting machines. In other states, even the dead have voted. Yet, for the most part, our elections are reasonably honest and can be counted on to accurately reflect the will of voters in the territory covered by the ballot.
Unfortunately, Trump is now putting the electoral process into question. He is accusing unnamed "others" of trying to rig the election. He is taking legitimacy away from the process in the eyes of his supporters, and this is dangerous. Assuming that Trump loses, his followers will not believe the results of the election. (Gore's supporters had a better claim that the election was stolen from them, but the need to hold the electoral college election for POTUS may have been more important than the accuracy of Florida's vote.) Can you imagine what could happen if a bunch of disaffected, armed Trump followers don't hear an honest concession speech from Trump on November 8th? I shudder at the thought.
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If one studies German history of the 1920's and early 1930's, one sees eerie parallels to what is happening in the United States. In Germany, hyperinflation destroyed the financial power of Germany's middle class. In the United States, the effects of globalization did the same to many in the middle class, as there was no safety net or shock absorber for these people. No wonder why they both sought out a "messiah" to deliver them from their suffering. Sadly, neither group could articulate its problem, nor could they come up with a leader from their own ranks who could challenge a corrupt elite. As a result, the Germans put Hitler into power, and we risk putting Trump into power.
In America, we have systemic unemployment, and no one dares to speak those words. People in rural areas do not have access to the opportunities of the city, and they couldn't even afford to move to the cities if they could leave their homes. The one factory, mill, or mine has closed down, leaving people with no way to escape poverty. A similar situation exists for those in the inner cities, as we have neglected the needs of the poor, and avoided addressing both social and educational needs that would help them break the cycle of poverty. We warehouse those who break laws in prison, permanently tainting them with a scarlet letter of a criminal record, and then expect that they compete for the few jobs left for those with "checkered backgrounds". The prison-industrial complex is hurting both rural and urban areas equally, and is helping to keep the poor in both areas from advocating for their own interests.
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Globalization has hit America hard, and both rural and urban areas have suffered because of it. No job is safe any longer. Yet, no one is proposing the form of safety net or shock absorber we need for our labor force. We do not provide for workers to retool themselves for the future. We do not limit the export of jobs that can be done anywhere, so that Americans are only serviced by American workers, Why is it that we place call centers in India, when this work can be just as easily done by people in rural West Texas, a Lakota Sioux reservation, and Chicago's South Side? There is no reason that we don't reserve most of these jobs for Americans, and pay the higher product prices needed to bring this labor back home.
Our elites are the problem, and they must be replaced. However, we must be careful to make sure we know how to operate the levers of power as we throw the bums out - or we will make things worse with a rebellion that is not thought out. Years ago, General Patton recognized the need to keep some ex-Nazis in charge of operations in occupied Germany. Contrast this with George Bush and the occupation of Iraq - he threw all ex-Baath party members out of power, and they had chaos.
For those who still want to vote for Trump, I have one question: Are you ready for the chaos that his election or defeat will likely cause?
As I write this, it looks like it will be Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump in the general election. This is a shame. Both are very flawed candidates. But the alternatives from the Republican party are much worse than these two people. (I'm in favor of Bernie Sanders, but I also recognize that he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell anymore.)
Most people feel very upset about these candidates. I do. But I also have to admit - Trump has been very effective in the use of his celebrity in his successes this year. Earlier in the morning, Joe Scarborough (of MSNBC's "Morning Joe") noted that Trump has had 15 years of celebrity exposure on TV, and that the working class (not the Beltway class or any of the elites) felt comfortable with someone who speaks their language on their terms.
Trump has been bringing attention to the issues that the elites have ignored, addressing the concerns of the working class, and being the one person who could force the Republican party to take a hard look at itself. In a speech he made today (I'm writing this on 4/26), Trump notes that Bernie Sanders is saying a lot of good things, and that he should run as a third party candidate. (Although I think this would be a disaster for Bernie and the Democratic party, Trump should be careful of what he suggests - he may just get it in ways he never expects....)
Thinking of Bernie Sanders and a third party run.... I feel that Bernie and the Democratic party made a deal to allow him to run as a Democrat. Neither Bernie nor Hillary wants to have the progressive voting bloc split. Splitting the bloc would likely result in a GOP victory. This is the likely reason that Michael Bloomberg didn't run this year. So I am left to wonder - what will happen to the people who supported Bernie? They have no love for Hillary, and they have no love for the Democratic party elite. If Bernie doesn't support Hillary with all his might, she will likely lose the election, and we'll see "TRUMP" in bold, flashing letters over the West wing of the White House.
What are we likely to see happen? As I see it, Bernie will extract one hell of a pound of flesh from Hillary. He will make sure to control a couple of cabinet positions (indirectly, of course), and make sure that Hillary can't give away the store. The Democrats desperately need the votes his supporters bring to the party, and Bernie is smart enough to play the long game - even if he only visits the White House on a tour. If this election plays out as I think it will, Hillary will win by a handful of votes (remember Bush vs. Gore?) and Bernie will likely be able to reshape the Democrats back into a true progressive party - which it hasn't been in years....
In short - Bernie has likely just earned his place in the history books, and people don't yet realize it for what it is....
