Wednesday, May 11, 2016

The race to the general election.


As I write this, it looks like it will be Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump in the general election. This is a shame.  Both are very flawed candidates.  But the alternatives from the Republican party are much worse than these two people.  (I'm in favor of Bernie Sanders, but I also recognize that he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell anymore.)

Most people feel very upset about these candidates.  I do.  But I also have to admit - Trump has been very effective in the use of his celebrity in his successes this year.  Earlier in the morning, Joe Scarborough (of MSNBC's "Morning Joe") noted that Trump has had 15 years of celebrity exposure on TV, and that the working class (not the Beltway class or any of the elites) felt comfortable with someone who speaks their language on their terms.  

Trump has been bringing attention to the issues that the elites have ignored, addressing the concerns of the working class, and being the one person who could force the Republican party to take a hard look at itself.  In a speech he made today (I'm writing this on 4/26), Trump notes that Bernie Sanders is saying a lot of good things, and that he should run as a third party candidate.  (Although I think this would be a disaster for Bernie and the Democratic party, Trump should be careful of what he suggests - he may just get it in ways he never expects....)  

Thinking of Bernie Sanders and a third party run....  I feel that Bernie and the Democratic party made a deal to allow him to run as a Democrat.  Neither Bernie nor Hillary wants to have the progressive voting bloc split. Splitting the bloc would likely result in a GOP victory. This is the likely reason that Michael Bloomberg didn't run this year.  So I am left to wonder - what will happen to the people who supported Bernie?  They have no love for Hillary, and they have no love for the Democratic party elite.  If Bernie doesn't support Hillary with all his might, she will likely lose the election, and we'll see "TRUMP" in bold, flashing letters over the West wing of the White House.

What are we likely to see happen?  As I see it, Bernie will extract one hell of a pound of flesh from Hillary.  He will make sure to control a couple of cabinet positions (indirectly, of course), and make sure that Hillary can't give away the store.  The Democrats desperately need the votes his supporters bring to the party, and Bernie is smart enough to play the long game - even if he only visits the White House on a tour.  If this election plays out as I think it will, Hillary will win by a handful of votes (remember Bush vs. Gore?) and Bernie will likely be able to reshape the Democrats back into a true progressive party - which it hasn't been in years....

In short - Bernie has likely just earned his place in the history books, and people don't yet realize it for what it is....




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