A lot of noise is being made in regard to the war between Hamas and Israel. Sadly, most people around the world are getting misinformation, and sound bites aimed to keep their respective ethnic groups supporting corrupt leaderships. In the case of the current Middle East conflict, the reality on the ground is much more nuanced than most people are led to believe.
A little over 100 years ago, allied powers forced the Ottoman Empire to divest itself of lands outside of Asia Minor. This meant that control of lands such as Lebanon and Palestine (I'm using the older meaning of this place name, and not today's meaning here) were ceded to Western powers such as France and the United Kingdom. Unlike the Ottomans, the French and British ran these lands in a ham-fisted manner. Neither cared much about the delicate interactions that took place between Christian, Muslim and Jew. In some cases, the same land was promised to multiple ethnic groups as payment for a temporary peace.
After World War 2, there was pressure on the UK to divide Palestine into a Muslim and a Jewish state. However, leaders on the Muslim side did not accept compromise, and in the late 1940's Israel had to fight for its right to be a Jewish homeland. Muslims who stayed on their land and cut peace deals with the Jewish state to be were allowed to stay and have full rights in the Jewish state. Sadly, the Muslims who fought against the Jewish state to be could not be allowed to return to their ancestrial lands.
Today's Palestine (which contains areas belonging to Israel, as well as the West Bank and Gaza) is not a two-state solution which has been talked about since the 1940's. Palestinian Muslims have been herded into both the West Bank and Gaza. This might not have been such a bad thing, if Jewish settlers hadn't turned the West Bank into a "Swiss Cheese" of a territory - what could have been a Palestinian homeland is dotted with illegal Israeli settlements due to population pressures in the Israeli state. The Israeli state doesn't care to remove these settlements to lay the groundwork for a healthy Muslim Palestine to evolve. The people have no political rights. And what rights they do have are often ignored by the Israeli government for reasons of political expediency.
To make things worse, the Palestinian Authority is corrupt, and is not trusted by the people. In the West Bank, they selected Fatah to run a government, and things have been tolerably calm (until now). But, in Gaza, things are much different. This part of Palestine is run by Hamas, and hasn't held an election since it took power over 15 years ago. Unlike Fatah, Hamas has both acted like a government AND retained its goal of the total destruction of Israel. There is no room for Israel to compromise when its neighbor advocates for Israel's total destruction.
Palestinian Muslims say that the Jews did not have a right to come in and take their land. But how long should a claim to land exist? The Jews were pushed out of Palestine by the Romans. Should their claim to a homeland be denied? But this question got me to thinking about North America. Europeans came to North America over 500 years ago, and displaced the native peoples. Should we be forced out? How should the legitimate rights of the natives to their land be dealt with? Does might make right? In the US, we have evolved a tolerable middle ground (tolerable for "old world" settlers, that is) that allocates "reservations" (unless that have valuable resources) to native tribes. We have a peace based on both higher population and on superior technology. The native tribes accept our existence on what was their lands and have found ways to live in peace with us.
A while back, a prominent US politician stated that Israel will either be an apartheid Jewish state with no rights for Palestinian Muslims, or it will be forced to become a non-religious state to survive. Previous Israeli inaction in regard to the West Bank settlements may have made a two-state solution impossible. But what does this mean for options which may lead to a meaningful peace?
As I see it, Hamas must be vanquished at all costs. At the same time, Israel must work with Fatah to make the West Bank a viable, functioning Palestinian state. Peaceful actions must be rewarded, as much as they may make Israel uncomfortable. Violence must be crushed with extreme prejudice. A future Palestinian state may have to be sacrifice Gaza in order to become a truly independent state. Yet, the question of Gaza remains. Can Israel destroy Hamas' leadership in Gaza without a scorched earth policy? No matter what, I expect to see many innocent Gazans die because Hamas wanted to prevent a grand peace deal from becoming reality.
But what can be done?
Muslims and Jews both self-select "news" that supports their own beliefs that they alone should be in control of historical Palestine. Outside regional forces have reinforced the views on the "Arab street" that Israel can never be up to any good. Arab media is just as biased as American media outlets such as Fox, Newsmax, and ONN have been in the United States. Even if one was to force the media outlets to only report objective news without biased opinions from bloviating media stars, it would take generations to undo the damage caused by information biases.
So, what do I see happening?
The Grand Deal regaring Mideast Peace has been scuttled for a while, but it will return. The Saudis have too much at risk to allow Iran to gain more power. The Turks (successors to the Ottomans) will try to gain influence in this region, possibly by turning itself into a peace broker. The Iranians will continue to try to stir up trouble by supporting Hamas and Hezbollah. But this will be a losing effort, as forces allied with the Saudis and the Turks will quietly work with Israel to defeat Iran. Israel will get involved in a protracted ar with Hamas, keeping Gazans imprisoned in their small strip of land, as they are a danger to any land that accepts them - including a West Bank Palestinian state.
Now, what happens to innocent Gazans?
Israel needs to clean Hamas out of Gaza. It may need to rebuild Gaza as a Hamas free zone and pay for the rebuilding of Gazan infrastructure. But it will not govern Gaza - this has been proven unworkable in the past. Part of a potential peace deal might involve the temporary administration of Gaza by a third power, a transitional government and media structure geared to "teach" Gazans how to live in the modern world and demand a government that responds to their needs first. Until then, we will have war....
