Thoughts on Impeachment

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

When did America stop being great?

When did America stop being great?

The false prophet always plays his siren's song to the same type of people - those who have lost many benefits of privilege, but don't see that they didn't deserve them in the first place. Trump appeals to those who want to return America to the 1950's, where "White America" ruled the world. Of course, they gloss over evils such as "Jim Crow" and enforced conformity to get there.

It is right to fear what will happen in this country. We're already seeing violence committed by Trump supporters who think they have the right to force others to submit to their will. (We never saw this with the Bushes, Clinton or Obama.) We've opened the social equivalent of an infected pus ball under the skin, and have only started to see the ugly mess come out. There is a lot of repressed hatred coming out from people who could not properly articulate or manage their problems. And it will go somewhere, causing a lot of damage.

We can't expect ignorant people to educate themselves. They often think they have more knowledge than they have, making it impossible for them to see how ignorant they really are. (See: Dunning-Kruger effect.) Think of the person who says: "God said it, I believe it, and That's it!" First, how can he prove that God said something? Next, how can this person know that his preacher or rabbi is telling him the right way to understand the holy book? And then, why is he absolutely sure that his beliefs are correct? Has he tested them? (Even Christ had to undergo tests of faith in the Bible.) These are among the people who have supported Trump, and still follow this extremely flawed leader only out of tribal loyalty.  And now, they have gotten what they want - a messianic leader even more flawed than they are.

Sadly, the worst will likely happen in this country over the next few years. We've already seen the North Carolina legislature go back on a deal involving their law authorizing discrimination against the GLBT community. We've seen that same legislature strip away power from the governor, to keep it in the former executive's party's hands. We've seen that same legislature make it impossible for the opposing political party to have an effective check and balance in the bureau of elections - making sure that the opposition party only has power in non-election years. This is the kind of behavior that signals the end of a republic, and the Trump supporters have "drunk the Kool-Aid."

The "Thousand Year Reich" only lasted 12 years. Who will lead the world when America falls? China? We are unprepared for the loss of what we cherish most, and many of us don't even see what is happening yet. I never experienced fear like this before, as I didn't understand what could be lost. Now, I see evil for what it is, and we've gotten way too close to the fires of Hell not to get burnt. I hope we will reverse this course towards the destruction of our country, but I doubt it.

I am lucky to have experienced America close to its greatest period in history. I am lucky to have known an America that looked outward to the world. I am lucky to have grown up in an America that welcomed diversity. Yes, it was a very flawed America, but one we could be proud of. My sincerest hope is that we will weather this coming storm, and that our children's generation will restore the greatness America lost during this coming era of darkness.

By now, the votes are in....

By now the election results are in.  And given the third presidential debate, I am hoping that Trump did the right thing and conceded defeat.  

- - - - - -

At the time I wrote this entry, Trump said that he would only consider following a long standing tradition and concede the election (assuming Hillary wins at the polls).  This is a dangerous precedent. Part of the glory of this country is the peaceful transfer of power from one administration to another, including the times when the opposition party is voted into power.  Trump is a clear and present danger, as long as he does not honor the will of the people, as this could incite malcontents into starting a "Beer Hall Putsch".

Hillary did the honorable thing and said that she would respect the results of the election. Of course, I expect this would be easy for her, because, by most measures, she is likely to win the election.  As of the time of the debate, this was Hillary's election to lose, and I think that she avoided the big mistakes that would cause her to lose.

- - - - - -

Last week, a decade old recording of Trump talking about being a sexual predator made the news. And the fellow on the other end of the conversation (Billy Bush) was fired from the Today show.  Several Republicans revoked their endorsements of Trump, as they realized that the GOP needs the votes of white women to win future elections. With this week's pronouncement regarding election results, these Republicans, and more, should be saying that they will respect the results of the election, and will not support Trump is he challenges the election.

Gore had good reason to challenge Bush in 2000.  Voting machines did not accurately record the will of the voters. Yet, when the results were finalized, Gore conceded with grace. In his blog of the third presidential debate, Andrew Sullivan posted an image of the letter that George Bush wrote to Bill Clinton on 1/20/1993. It was an extremely gracious letter, saying that Bush truly wished Clinton the best fortune as president of our country.  I doubt that Trump can be this gracious.

- - - - - -

I strongly hope that Hillary wins this election, as I am afraid of how nasty Trump treats people perceived to be his enemies.  There is no place in being nasty and impolite when one is the most powerful person in the world. As Teddy Roosevelt once said, "Speak softly and carry a big stick."  Trump does neither.  In each of the debates, Hillary acted with class, and kept her cool. Trump, on the other hand, showed himself for the bully he is.  He is not qualified to stand at the most important bully pulpit in the world.  He is the clear and present danger to America, not Hillary. In nihilist rage, he would destroy the country if he doesn't get his way. Whereas Hillary will only keep a corrupt system in place, for lack of a better system to replace what we have now. 

So I ask a question - can one man, in isolation, "Make America Great Again?"  If Trump can, he doesn't need the cooperation of the American people to do so. And if not, it would be foolish to elect a person who believes he can accomplish miracles due to the "strength" of his personality.  Hopefully, America has voted rationally.

Understanding our problems from a historical perspective

In order to understand what is going on with this year's election, one has to understand history. In short, one has to understand what led up to the Great Depression, what led up to Iraq War #1, the Bill Clinton presidency, the George Bush (#43) presidency (especially the response to 9/11), and the Obama presidency.  In the light of history, everything going on makes sense, and I'm still surprised that only the Libertarians have emerged to be a potential disruptor for this election.

Let's look at the Bush #43 presidency first.  He was elected with the mantra of "Compassionate Conservatism" infusing his campaign.  One would have expected him to be a president who focused on domestic affairs.  He did push a reactionary conservative agenda to appease the hard liners of the GOP base, and did appoint many conservatives to the courts. But 9/11 threw him and the rest of the country for a loop.  Politically, he couldn't allow another terrorist attack to occur without an appropriate amount of security theater - so we built up much of our dysfunctional security infrastructure in his reign.  But he also had to get us into a never-ending war, where we disrupted the power structure in Iraq, allowing ISIS to form.

Next, we have to look back at the Bill Clinton presidency.  Bill was a sex addict (no surprise, FDR and JFK also "suffered" from this affliction).  But Bill succeeded beyond anyone's expectations, leaving the US with a treasury that was spending less than it was taking in. Yet, his presidency was marred with scandals (something common in politics), and his wife was tarred with the same brush that tarred him.

Bush had a choice - should he borrow to pay America's bills for a war in Afghanistan, or should he raise taxes to pay for the war?  He chose to borrow AND decided to cut taxes - leaving whoever would following him with very tough choices - do we cut the military or social spending budgets, and which line items are sacred?  Luckily these tax cuts were temporary, and would expire after he left office.  They were designed to make a Democratic president look bad, as no Democrat would touch social spending - so he would have to let the tax cuts expire, allowing the GOP to claim he raised taxes.

The GOP has a mantra of "Less regulation brings on greater prosperity."  When the economy collapsed in 2008, a smart GOP candidate would have to ask the question: "What happens if we continue our dysfunctional policies?  Could we have another Great Depression?"  And I'll bet that John McClain realized this in 2008.  Could he tell his party's loyalists that they needed to pump money into the economy AND impose new regulations on the banking sector of the economy?  Of course not.  So he made a decision that he'll never admit making - to trash his chances of being elected President by nominating Sarah Palin for the office of Vice President.  (But he had to play dumb.  Any hint that he threw the election would damage his stature in the GOP - and he hasn't admitted that he did this yet, and I doubt he ever will....)  John McCain was very aware of what happened to Herbert Hoover.  His administration was blamed for the Great Depression, and the Democrats held the office of the President for 20 years under FDR and Truman.  I'm pretty sure that McCain figured that the GOP could brush Bush #43 under the rug, and possibly tarnish the Democrat (Obama) so the GOP could win in 2012.

Obama is elected in 2008.  We know from recent history that the GOP opposed everything he tried to do to prevent a Great Depression.  But both Bush #43's advisors and Obama's advisors were working to script legislation to prevent the worst from happening. And Obama was more successful than expected, in spite of the GOP.  He knew not to shred the social safety net while things were getting worse, and then to take away the extra support when things got better.  No matter what people did to find scandal in his administration, his was the cleanest we've had in decades.

During Obama's administration, the GOP regained control of congress.  And repealing Obamacare became a new mantra.  Hillary Clinton takes on the job of Secretary of State, dealing with many of the foreign policy decisions that Obama doesn't have the time to make, being involved in the domestic economy and its problems.  But this places her back in the cross hairs of the GOP's attacks on her.  If they could have convicted her of anything, they probably would have done so.  But the most they could do is to tarnish the reputation of a woman because she was married to a president of the opposition party who was very successful and very flawed.

The GOP congress was ineffectual in delivering on its many problems, and many in the base stopped believing in the lies told by its elite. So, Donald Trump became a great disruptor.  Voting for Trump was a vote against the GOP elite.  Sadly, Trump is a person who leaves anyone and anything he touches poorer for knowing him.  But one would have to know his history to think he's anything other than a successful entrepreneur.  

At the same time, the Democratic elite was also shown to be worthless, leaving fertile ground for Bernie Sanders' candidacy.  If it weren't for Bernie NOT realizing how powerful his message and candidacy would become, and how the Democratic party's elite structured things for Hillary to win, he might have just pulled up the upset of the century.

Now we have Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as our presumptive nominees.  They have the lowest approval ratings in decades.  And the Libertarian, Gary Johnson is polling in the double digit range.  Will he be able to keep polling this high and get into the debates?  I'm not sure, but he is another disruptor. If Johnson were to win any electoral votes, and if neither Trump or Clinton win a majority of electoral votes, the presidential election could go to the House of Representatives.  Would the majority GOP states vote for Trump, or would they do something embarrassing like voting for Clinton?  I suspect that neither candidate would be acceptable, and this would leave the Libertarian (who is, I believe, a former GOP governor) as the only palatable choice. 

Could this scenario happen?  It's highly unlikely, but we've seen the strangest things happen this year, and I'm not ruling out even stranger things from happening.....

And now, for your amusement - Jeb Bush!

As David Letterman said before he retired: "Bush presidencies are like Godfather movies - it's best to stop at two."  I don't recycle this Letterman joke because I dislike the fellow. Instead, I recycle it as a reminder that he would be the third member of his family to hold the office of President if elected - something he downplayed very much in his announcement that he was running for POTUS.

- - - - - -

Jeb is the Bush brother who was being groomed for the presidency. It was a surprise to his dad that Jeb lost a gubernatorial election in Florida, while his brother won in Texas. And, as a result, it was "W" who ran for POTUS and won in 2000.  (I can only imagine what might have happened if Jeb had been in office instead of his brother - would he have come off as more competent?  Only god knows - I certainly don't.) But I expect that Jeb will be the likely GOP 2016 nominee - and will run against Hillary Clinton.

Let's contrast the two likely candidates at first glance.  Jeb's web site and other media downplays his membership in the Bush family. Hillary in her announcement made a big deal about her connections to both her husband Bill (former POTUS) and Barack Obama (current POTUS). What does this say about Jeb? Does he fear being tarred by the same brush being used on "W"?  I can't blame him - I think "W" was a terrible president.  (Too bad that he can't distance himself from "W" without also distancing himself from his father - who was a decent president.)

- - - - - -

I am very leery of having another Bush run for POTUS. This family has been extremely well connected for the past 150+ years - and electing one of the entrenched elite from a family who has already supplied 2 POTUS's makes me worry about a static elite in this country. Our founding fathers lived in a world where one could go from poor to rich and back to being poor within a generation or two.  This is no longer the case.  So I pose the question - can we afford to have families who lock themselves permanently into both the economic and political elites?

Even though Jeb may be a decent man, my concerns about him and his family are solely about the establishment of a permanent elite, and whether a democratic republic can afford to have one. As much as I hate to compare the United States and France, sometimes the comparisons can't be avoided. In this case, history gave us a France with a static elite. The rule of law was perverted to keep this elite in power, and social injustice was rampant. Eventually the pot boiled over, and France had its revolution.  The signs are there that America hasn't learned its European history that well - and I am very concerned about what might happen in our lifetimes....